Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves 7/4/19 - MLB Baseball O/U Pick & Betting Odds
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
MLB: 7:20 PM ET
Jul. 04, 2019
TV: ESPN
Latest Odds : Atlanta -165 O/U 10.0
The Philadelphia Phillies start Zach Eflin. Though his numbers have faded some compared to his early season success, Zach Eflin has still been one of the Philadelphia Phillies most consistent starters this season. Zach Eflin has a strong 3.34 ERA on the season.
This is the first start for Zach Eflin against the Atlanta Braves since August of 2017 so this is a big edge for the pitcher as the opposing lineup lacks experience against him. The Atlanta Braves are starting Mike Soroka in this July 4th match-up with the Philadelphia Phillies.
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The Atlanta Braves Mike Soroka is 9-1 with a 2.13 ERA this season and that is why the best value in this match-up appears to be with the short side of the total. This total was a 10.5 and then moved to a 10 in early trading action. This still seems to be an inflated number when considering the overall success for Zach Eflin and red hot success for Mike Soroka this season.
The Atlanta Braves entered Wednesday's game two of this series having allowed 3 or less runs in 4 of their last 5 home games and also have scored an average of only 4.3 runs per game their last 8 games overall. Entering the Wednesday game, the Philadelphia Phillies had scored a total of only 3 runs in their last two games against Braves pitching.
Recent Betting Trends:
Philadelphia is 3-6 in Zach Eflin's road starts this season
Phillies O/U, entering Wednesday, is 9-2-2 in road games against right-handed starters
Philadelphia, entering Wednesday, is 6-2 their last 8 games
Atlanta is 9-5 in Mike Soroka's starts this season
Braves O/U, entering Wednesday, is 19-31 in July games
Atlanta, entering Wednesday, is 25-9 this season as a favorite of -125 to -175
Free Betting Pick: UNDER 10 in Atlanta
With consideration to all of the above factors, runs will be few and far between in this one. The best bet (value) is to play under the total based on a projected final score of Atlanta Braves 4, Philadelphia Phillies 3